Diagnostic

Why did EBITDA miss? Here's the line item that did it.

Anomaly detection on every journal entry. Variance attribution by operational lever. Root-cause walks down to the specific transactions and locations that drove the miss. Every finding comes with an AI explanation grounded in your driver history.

Anomaly detection

Every journal entry watched. 2σ gets flagged.

The platform continuously watches your ledger for movements outside expected envelopes. An anomaly is a journal-entry rollup that deviates more than 2σ from the trailing twelve months of the same account, period, and location combination. The detection runs nightly after close; the high-severity findings hit your dashboard before your controller hits coffee.

Each finding lands with the expected value, the observed value, the z-score, and an AI-written one-sentence explanation that references the driver history that contextualizes it.

  • Nightly scheduled detection across every account × location combination
  • Severity tiers: low (>1.5σ), medium (>2σ), high (>3σ)
  • Inline annotations on the Income Statement and EBITDA Report when a period contains an anomaly
  • Dismissable findings; resolved anomalies don't re-alert until the envelope shifts
  • AI explanation cites driver context: "payroll ran $42k above trailing-12-month mean, driven by a 12% headcount increase that began in March"
Variance attribution

Why did we miss the budget? Lever by lever.

When a scenario or budget has periods that have now elapsed, the platform compares projected against actual and decomposes the variance — not by account, by operational lever. Each variance walks lever and driver mappings backward to identify the most likely lever that explains the miss.

01 · CAPTURE

Treat scenarios and budgets the same way.

The variance attribution engine treats Scenarios and Budgets uniformly through a shared interface. Whether you set the target in FP&A or in the planning suite, the attribution logic is identical.

02 · DECOMPOSE

Per-account variance to per-lever attribution.

For each variance, the engine walks lever and driver mappings backward to identify the most likely lever. When multiple levers map to one account, the attribution uses observed driver values: enrollments grew 8%, so most of the revenue variance attributes there.

03 · RANK

Ordered by absolute miss.

A table of variances ranked by absolute miss, each with its inferred lever and a one-paragraph CFO summary. Drill any row into the EBITDA bridge to see the waterfall, or into the root-cause walk to descend into the specific entries.

Root-cause walks

From "EBITDA missed by $120k" to the entries that caused it.

A guided drill from a variance down to the journal entries that drove it. The starting point is a metric. The destination is a list of transactions. The walk reuses the report service and account service for the balance queries at each step — the novelty is the navigation and the AI-written summary that contextualizes each level.

  • Pick the metric: EBITDA, revenue, gross margin, a single account
  • Pick the comparison: period-over-period, vs budget, vs scenario, vs baseline
  • The walk computes top contributors — locations × accounts, ranked by absolute variance
  • Click a contributor to descend. At each level, a one-paragraph AI summary explains the numbers
  • At the leaf, individual journal entries link to the existing ledger view
Forecast accuracy tracking

How well are our plans actually predicting reality?

Once time has passed, the platform measures how well saved scenarios predicted what actually happened. Per scenario, per metric, per period: projected, actual, signed error, rolling MAPE. The accuracy page surfaces aggregate AI-vs-manual performance so operators see whether AI scenarios are out-performing their hand-built ones — and the answer feeds back into the next AI proposal.

This is the loop. Drivers whose AI projections were persistently wrong get larger uncertainty in their next envelope. The model becomes better at proposing what's plausible because the platform has watched it propose, watched the operator execute, and watched reality respond.

  • Monthly scheduled accuracy computation after each close
  • Per-metric: revenue, EBITDA, op cash flow, margin percentage
  • Rolling MAPE per scenario, per company, per AI vs manual source
  • Persistently inaccurate driver projections get smaller weight in future calibration
  • The "calibration loop" that makes proposed scenarios sharper over time

Stop signing contracts before you've seen your own numbers.

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